Nobody Rings a Bell: Who Dates a Recession, and How Late
When the economy contracts for two straight quarters, the news runs with “recession,” instantly. Yet the United States has no such mechanical rule.

Rules that move public money are written down, and so are the statistics they are indexed to. This section treats both as mechanics: who is obliged to publish what, on which schedule, computed by which formula, and what the formula counts. That means reading tax lines and statutory deductions as they appear on the return rather than as they appear in a summary, and treating a revision to an official series as a fact about the series.
The questions that follow are deliberately narrow: which rent the shelter component of a price index is actually measuring, where a dollar of federal revenue is recorded as spent, and who is entitled to say that a downturn has begun. None of the three is settled by a headline figure, and none of them is a matter of taste — each has a committee, a form or a formula behind it, and that is what the material describes. Dates shown on this page are the date of publication and the date of the last revision.

When the economy contracts for two straight quarters, the news runs with “recession,” instantly. Yet the United States has no such mechanical rule.

Receipts, Outlays, and the Deficit Gap The document that governs this arithmetic is the Monthly Treasury Statement.


The envelope lands. The landlord wants fourteen percent more. Same day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that shelter inflation is running at four.
The title of Brandon’s previous post “The Center Can Not Hold” is ripped from the end of the famous TS Elliot poem The Wasteland .
In 1998’s Shut Up and Deal , Jesse May told you all you need to know about the poker world. My book, 2006’s Broke: A Poker Novel, was an afterword.
I’m posting here a link to a discussion between Freakonomics co-author Stephen Dubner and Nobel Prize Winning Economist Gary Becker conducted on ExpertInsight.com
I should be one of the only people who has read nearly every word on Warren Mosler’s site, www.moslereconomics.com.
There is a great scene in the Steven Spielberg movie Catch Me if You Can where Leonardo DiCaprio playing the young Frank Abiginale has his “Aha” moment.

Every once in a while a pitch comes along that looks like the sweetest, juiciest, fattest pitch you are ever going to see. That is what you wait for.
Last August Ben Bernanke unofficially announced QE2, known alternately as quantitative easing, seigniorage or laypeople as printing money.

I remember being at Harvard in the basement of Annenberg and watching the war in Iraq begin on FoxNews.

It has been said that without George W. Bush, Obama would not have been president. There is some truth to that.
The populist criticism of the International Monetary Fund always ran something like this: since power at the IMF is apportioned based on monetary contribution to